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JANUARY 14,  2016

THE DEBATE:  No "Short Takes" tonight so we can examine the Republican debate that just took place.

I try to study the debate itself, but then monitor the comments on television and across the web. 

General reaction:  The debate confirmed that there are three serious contenders at the moment.  They are Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and perhaps Marco Rubio.  Chris Christie has made some progress, but has not caught on.  Jeb Bush, a good man but a so-so campaigner, remains in the race.  If there's a catastrophe at the top, he might jump up, but I doubt it.  There were no shocks in the debate that would change the conventional wisdom.

A Frank Luntz focus group, held in the critical primary state of South Carolina (where the debate was held), decided unanimously that Ted Cruz won the debate.  Other commentators, though, felt Trump had won.  Both Trump and Cruz sounded more "presidential" then they had in previous debates, elevating both men.  And indeed, most of the commentary surrounded these two.  But Rubio was given wide praise for his passion and clarity.  He would be an effective opponent to Hillary Clinton – a young man of the 21st century, against an older woman who is on the cutting edge of the 1960s.  And Rubio has an appeal to the political center, a danger area for both Trump and Cruz.

The Iowa caucuses take place on February 1st.

The New Hampshire primary is February 9th.

South Carolina – February 20th.

Super Tuesday is March 1st – 14 states, including the powerhouses of Texas and Virginia.

Many primaries in March, including Florida, Illinois and Ohio on March 15th.  Both Rubio and Bush are from Florida.  The one who loses his own state is out.

So, we should have a very vivid picture of this race within two months.  That doesn't mean we will be crowning anyone.  It may be that candidates dig in and that no one breaks through to the 50% mark.  It may be that Trump loses steam.  It may be that someone makes a serious blunder.  And then the talk of a contested convention will grow.  And that's fun.

January 14, 2016       Permalink

DEBATE TONIGHT – AT 10:21 A.M. ET:  The Republicans will debate again tonight.  The race is becoming exceedingly bitter and at times vulgar.  I've heard that the candidates will have to go through metal detectors.   (Not really.)  From Reuters: 

CHARLESTON, S.C./MANCHESTER, N.H. (Reuters) - Flaring tempers and sharp elbows may turn a debate of seven Republican presidential candidates into a seven-car pileup on Thursday with tensions between Donald Trump and rival Ted Cruz leading the way.

The sixth Republican debate, at the North Charleston Coliseum in the swing state of South Carolina, takes place at a tense time for the Republican field with the clock ticking toward Feb. 1 in Iowa, the first contest in the race to choose the party's nominee for the Nov. 8 general election.

"Everybody has to avoid making mistakes," said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. "If you mess something up in this debate you're going to have almost no opportunity to correct it."

The 9 p.m. EST debate features the top seven candidates ranked by Republican voters: New York real estate businessman and reality TV star Trump, Texas Senator Cruz, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Ohio Governor John Kasich.

COMMENT:  I'm starting to sense a growing feeling of revulsion toward both the Democratic and Republican races.  Americans are yearning for first-class leadership, and I don't see a particular "wanting" for anyone on either side.  Dems are not worked up over Hillary.  A small number yearn for Bern, but I don't think Bern will make it.

On the Republican side, the vulgar but fascinating Donald Trump has tapped into voter anger, and is considered the frontrunner, but is hovering in the thirties.  More people are against him than are for him.  If he becomes the nominee, I wouldn't be shocked to see an independent candidate for president. 

There is no Reagan, who was both effective and likeable, a natural communicator.  A general-election race between Clinton and Trump might come down to who is the least disliked. 

Who could run as an independent?  The last time we had a serious independent candidate was 1992, when Ross Perot, who received 19% of the vote, probably spoiled President George H.W. Bush's chances for a second term.  In 2000, Ralph Nader, who got 2.74% of the vote nationally, may have cost Al Gore the state of Florida, and thus the election.

No sure thing this year.

January 14, 2016       Permalink

A STUNNING ATTEMPT – AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  There has been a terrorist attack in Jakarta, capital of Indonesia.  It largely failed, but ISIS is claiming responsibility, demonstrating that they can attack again and again, in rapid succession.   Indonesia is a Muslim country.  From Times of India:   

Isis has reportedly claimed responsibility for the Jakarta attacks in a statement released through one of its allied propaganda agencies.

"Islamic State fighters carried out an armed attack this morning targeting foreign nationals and the security forces charged with protecting them in the Indonesian capital," Aamaaq news agency said on its Telegram channel.

Seven people, including five suspected attackers, died in suicide bombings and shootings in the Indonesian capital on Thursday morning.

Militants targeted the Sarinah shopping centre, on Thamrin Street, which houses a McDonalds and other multinational brands.

A Starbucks, Pizza hut and Burger King lie across the road next to the Djakarta Theater XXI cinema, while the five-star Sari Pan Pacific Jakarta hotel is the next building along and United Nations and government offices are also nearby.

COMMENT:  The attacks seem to have targeted American brands.  Clearly the attackers failed.  They were undoubtedly going for high casualties.  The Indonesian police acted quickly and the attack was blunted.

But the fact of the assault, and its clear targeting of American companies, should not be lost on us.  ISIS will try again, and again, and again.  That's been their pattern over the last six months.

January 14,  2016     Permalink

THE ASSAULT ON HILLARY – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  You can just feel it.  Many Democrats are uneasy about Hillary Clinton, and whether she can actually win the general election.  They are also uneasy about the FBI investigation into Clinton, which can demolish her campaign.  The chief uneaser seems to be Vice President Joe Biden.  From NRO:

Vice President Joe Biden just took Hillary Clinton out at the knees.

“Bernie [Sanders] is speaking to a yearning that is deep and real,” Biden told CNN’s Gloria Borger. “And that is the absolute enormous concentration of wealth in a small group of people, with the middle class, now being shown, being left out.”

When Borger pointed out that, “Hillary’s been talking about that as well,” Biden was undeterred.

“It’s relatively new for Hillary to talk about that,” he said. “Hillary’s focus has been on other things up to now, and that’s been Bernie’s — nobody questions Bernie’s authenticity on those issues. . . . I think they question everybody’s who hasn’t been talking about it all along, but I think she’s come forward with some really thoughtful approaches to deal with the issue.”

You don’t say this sort of thing if you’re enthusiastic about Clinton being the Democratic nominee in 2016. Either the vice president wants to ensure that Sanders gets a fair shot at the nomination, or he’s itching to reverse his own decision not to run in 2016. (He has recently hinted at the latter possibility.)

COMMENT:  Obama clearly does not want Hillary to succeed him.  And Bernie is seen as an interesting curiosity, a decent man who can't win, but who's shown how vulnerable Hillary is.

Biden is the man to watch, especially if the FBI probe shows that Hillary's behavior is more serious than a parking ticket.

January 14, 2016       Permalink

JANUARY 13,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET: 

MY HEART BREAKS – From The Hill:   Al Jazeera America is shutting its doors less than three years after making a massive investment in the U.S. media market, an end for the cable news channel beset with meager ratings and internal strife.  Chief executive Al Anstey told employees in a companywide meeting Wednesday that the “decision by Al Jazeera America’s board is driven by the fact that our business model is simply not sustainable in light of the economic challenges in the U.S. media marketplace,” according to The New York Times.   How will Obama get his news?

COINCIDENCE? – From The New York Times:   Concerned about illicit money flowing into luxury real estate, the Treasury Department said Wednesday that it would begin identifying and tracking secret buyers of high-end properties.  The initiative will start in two of the nation’s major destinations for global wealth: Manhattan and Miami-Dade County. It will shine a light on the darkest corner of the real estate market: all-cash purchases made by shell companies that often shield purchasers’ identities.  Hmm.  Who's the king of real estate in New York?  Isn't his name Trump?  Just a coincidence, I'm sure.  Nothing to see, nothing to see.

DARKNESS ON CAMPUS – From the College Fix:   At Pennsylvania State University, no hurt feeling is too small, no slight too inconsequential, no unintentionally biased statement too unimportant.  Administrators want to know it all.  The public university is in the midst of a massive campaign that encourages students not only to watch what they say, lest they offend someone, but also to report any and all biased statements to campus officials.  Next they'll be encouraged to turn in their parents.  One of the great lies is that intellectuals love freedom.  The record is actually quite poor, as we are seeing today.

January 13, 2016       Permalink

OUR NEW, WARM, IRANIAN FRIENDS – Following the release of our sailors this morning, Iran issued another blunt threat to the United States.  From FNA: 

TEHRAN (FNA) - Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy Commander Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi blamed the US navy for its excited and unprofessional moves after Iran arrested 10 US marines for trespassing on its territorial waters, warning that his forces' coast-to-sea missiles were awaiting orders to hit the American aircraft carrier deployed in the region.

The IRGC seized two US Navy boats on Tuesday and detained them on Iran's Farsi Island in the Persian Gulf. Nine men and one woman arrived in Iran's territorial waters in the Persian Gulf illegally when they were captured by the IRGC Navy.

Following the capture, two US and French aircraft carriers as well as their accompanying fleets and military choppers started maneuvering near Iranian waters.

"The USS Truman Aircraft carrier showed unprofessional moves for 40 minutes after the detention of the trespassers, while we were highly prepared with our coast-to-sea missiles, missile-launching speedboats and our numerous capabilities" and were ready to strike them in case they made a hostile move, Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi said after Iran released the detained US marines.

COMMENT:  How nice.  How friendly.  This morning our secretary of state, Grand Admiral John Kerry, actually thanked the Iranians for releasing our ten sailors, who should never have been captured in the first place.  Kerry attributed their release to the new contacts with Iran developed during the nuclear-agreement talks. 

Apparently, Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi never got the memo. 

The Iranians must be laughing their heads off.  And for good reason.

January 13, 2016       Permalink

THE NIKKI FACTOR – AT 10:47 A.M. ET:   It's not necessary to agree with South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley to realize that she made an impression last night, giving the GOP response to Obama's Mess of the Union address.   She knew that by seeming to take on Donald Trump, she'd make news and be invited back to interview shows.  And so it has been.  From Breitbart: 

Wednesday on NBC’s “Today,” Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) elaborated on her Republican response to last night’s State of the Union address.

Haley was asked by show co-host Matt Lauer if she was specifically referring to GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump when talking about her party’s “angriest voices,” to which she acknowledged she was indeed talking about Trump.

“He was one of them, yes — he was one,” Haley said. “There’s other people in the media, there’s people in my state. I think we’re seeing it across the country. But yes, Mr. Trump has definitely contributed to what I think is just irresponsible talk.”

When asked if she would consider being on the Republican presidential ticket, Haley thanked House Speaker Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)56% and Senate Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)46%
for the opportunity, but would not commit to the possibility.

“I know that people in the media don’t believe that, but I was given an opportunity to say what I think, and I appreciate that from Speaker Ryan and Senator McConnell,” Haley replied.

“I think that that’s a big decision,” she added. “It’s a family decision. It’s a state decision. It’s something I’d have to think about. But absolutely would sit down with anyone that wanted to talk.”

COMMENT:  Nikki Haley has often been a factor when considering vice-presidential candidates.  She's now a more important and more visible factor.  Her timing couldn't be better.  The big primary after Iowa and New Hampshire will be held in her own state of South Carolina, on February 20th.  She'll be seen and heard. 

Will she endorse one candidate and roll the dice?  Maybe.  If she helps that candidate win the nomination, her name will be golden.

March 1st is Super Tuesday, when 14 states and one territory (American Samoa) hold their primary elections or caucuses.  If Haley is seen as a rising star, she'll be in demand as a speaker.  A female, a minority, a Southerner.  Someone who took on Trump. 

This is all speculative, and Haley may burn out in three days.   But she's a sitting governor with a high approval rating, and I would not underestimate her.

January 13, 2016       Permalink

IRAN IN CHARGE – AT 9:33 A.M. ET:  Iran has now released the ten American sailors it seized yesterday, apparently after one of the Americans' two boats encountered mechanical problems.   The administration will hail the release as a sign of new cooperation with Iran.  But grown-ups see it differently.  From ace defense reporters Josh Rogin and Eli Lake, at Bloomberg, written before the release: 

Iran's seizure of two U.S. naval ships and President Barack Obama's response show that the country the president hoped would secure his foreign policy legacy now has the ability to hold it hostage.

Obama didn’t mention the incident in the Persian Gulf during his State of the Union speech because, according to administration officials, the U.S. does not consider the boarding of the ships and the seizure of 10 U.S. sailors to be a "hostile act." Instead, the president praised the diplomatic agreement on Iran's nukes.

Not a hostile act?  And I guess those planes over Pearl Harbor in 1941 were flown by lost tourists.

“As we speak, Iran has rolled back its nuclear program, shipped out its uranium stockpile, and the world has avoided another war,” he said.

Even if Iran quickly releases the 10 U.S. military personnel it took custody of, as senior Obama administration officials assured reporters Tuesday evening, the incident is a significant escalation in the Persian Gulf. It shows that despite a nuclear agreement with the West, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps is willing to board U.S. vessels, take American soldiers into custody, and, according to CNN citing U.S. officials, confiscate the crew's communications and GPS equipment.

Officials pointed to Secretary of State John Kerry’s call to Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif as evidence of an improved bilateral relationship. But there were several signs the administration and the Iranian government were not working well together. As the Iranian state press reported the sailors had been “arrested” for “snooping,” a senior Obama administration official gave reporters conflicting information, saying the boats had malfunctioned and the sailors would be released “promptly.” It took several hours before the captured sailors were allowed to make contact with their superiors.

The incident is just latest in a series of Iranian provocations since agreeing to the nuclear deal in July. In late December, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels fired unguided missiles near the USS Truman; the U.S. did not retaliate. Also last month, Kerry wrote to the Iranian government to assure it the U.S. government would waive new visa restrictions passed by Congress, after Tehran objected. The U.S. indefinitely delayed imposing sanctions on Iran in response to its tests of ballistic missiles in violation of United Nations sanctions.

“This administration is going to remain hostage from now until they leave office to the games the Iranians play and to Iranian behavior that falls outside the four corners of the agreement,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator now at the Wilson Center.

COMMENT:  Iran knows it can play Obama like a violin because our president will do nothing to disrupt the nuclear agreement.  We're now into the "legacy" game, not the leadership game.

But don't despair.  Just wait for the end-of-term media wrapups of Obama's presidency, when we'll be told that he's ready for Mount Rushmore.  I can just hear those words from Chris Matthews. 

January 13, 2016       Permalink

IS HILLARY COLLAPSING? – AT 9:12 A.M. ET:  Caution:  It is tempting to ask questions like that, but be aware that, despite his poll progress thus far, Bernie Sanders faces a daunting task after the focus passes from Iowa and New Hampshire and switches to the South, where large numbers of African-American voters are ready to support Hillary.  From CBS: 

Bernie Sanders now leads Hillary Clinton by 14 points in New Hampshire, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll of likely New Hampshire voters who are likely to vote in the first-in-the-nation primary in February.

Fifty-three percent of these voters choose Sanders, compared to 39 percent for Clinton. And the new poll shows that Clinton has also lost her edge over Sanders among registered Democrats, women and older voters. Sanders has now surpassed her with these voters, while holding onto his lead among registered independents, men and younger voters.

Under New Hampshire's modified primary system, undeclared voters may vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary, although voters who are members of one of the parties cannot vote in the other party's primary. Clinton (42 percent) is now losing Democrats to Sanders (50 percent), compared to two months ago, when she led Sanders 57 percent - 35 percent.

COMMENT:  Let's give it some time before the political obituary is written.  Hillary's biggest problem, and one that can explode at any moment, is the FBI investigation hanging over her.  However, if her polls continue to weaken, the Dems might start to panic, and look toward Joe Biden to save them.  Obama will smile.

January 13,  2016     Permalink